Three Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair set record high water levels in May. The forecast for water rising to mid-summer shows an all-time high water mark is possible since good records began 102 years ago.
Mouth of the Boardman River in downtown Traverse City, MI. (Photo courtesy John Robert Williams)
Lake Michigan and Lake Huron topped the previous May water level record by 4 inches. This extra water represents 3.2 trillion gallons that Lake Michigan-Huron never had in a month of May.
Water level past, present and future for Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
The solid red line is the water level measurement for May and months back to June 2018. You can clearly see May was higher than the black dash on the graph, which represents the previous record high water mark.
All of the Great Lakes are in their normal seasonal rise, and usually peak water levels are reached around July. Lake Michigan and Huron are expected to continue to rise in June and July. The green dash is the most likely water level in the next six months. If you look at the blue dashed line, that is the long term historical average water cycle. You can see the green dash forecast fits exactly the normal rise and fall. In other words, the center of the forecast will work if Mother Nature gives us average weather. The red dashed cone is the range of possible outcomes. If Lake Michigan and Huron actually track to the top end of the red dashed cone, July and/or August could have the highest water level recorded back to the beginning of records in 1918.
Water level past, present and future on Lake Erie.
Lake Erie set a record high water level in May, but is not expected to top the previous June record, if the water level follows the green dash- the most likely outcome. At the upper end of the possibility wedge, Lake Erie would also set another all-time high record, since records began.
Lake St. Clair is getting all of the water flowing out of Lakes Michigan and Huron, and is also at record high levels.
Water levels past, present and future for Lake St. Clair.
You can easily see from the Lake St. Clair graph that the most likely water level matches the long term average curve.
Lake Superior was not at record high water levels in May.
Water levels past, present and future for Lake Superior.
Lake Superior is forecasted to remain below record high water levels through November.
Lake Ontario is the Great Lake currently with water levels farthest below record levels.
Water levels past, present and future for Lake Ontario
Lake Ontario is actually expected to trend downward toward long term average water levels.
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